BEGREPPSMÄSSIGA AVRINNINGSMODELLER TILLFÖRLITLIGA VERKTYG I VATTENPLANERINGEN? / Conceptual runoff models – reliable tools in water management?
Available observations are often not suffcient as a basis for decision making in water management. Conceptual runoff models are frequently used as tools for a wide range of tasks to compensare the lack of measurements, e.g. to extend runoff series, compare design floods and predict the leakage of nutrients or the effects of a climatic change. Conceptual runoffmodels are practical tools, especially if the reliability in their predicuons can be assessed. Testing of these models is usually based solely on comparison of simulated and observed runoff, although most models also simulate other fluxes and states. Such tests do not allow thorough assessment of model-predicdon reliability. Testing two models, the HBV model and TOPMODEL, in various ways indicated limitations ofconceptual runofFmodels and highlighred the need for powerful validation methods. The use of such methods enables assessment of the reliability of model predictions. This assessment supports the reasonable use of models in water management because it helps to prevent false judgements about the reliability. “Complete abstract not presented.”