DYNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF TO THE BALTIC SEA DURING THE PAST MILLENNIUM
The present study used results from a ‘paleosimulation’ covering the Baltic Sea basin and the surrounding areas to investigate chaotic properties of temperature, precipitation, and runoff. Three periods between years 1000 and 1929 (1000–1199, 1551–1749, and 1751–1929), representing a warm, a cool, and an intermediate climate episode, respectively, were studied. Time series of annual temperature, precipitation, and runoff were analyzed using phase space reconstruction (both univariate and multivariate) to investigate their dynamic and chaotic nature. The phase spaces for these variables display more or less clear attractors, suggesting possible nonlinear determinism in the underlying dynamics. This property may be exploited for pattern recognition and more accurate short-term predictions, which would contribute to a better understanding of regional runoff dynamics due to climate effects.