ÖKANDE FRAMTIDA HÖGVATTENSTÅND l ÖRESUND OCH SYDVÄSTRA ÖSTERSJÖN / Increasing Mean High Water Levels in Öresund and the South-west Baltic Sea
An estimation of the magnitude of future mean high water levels in Oresund and the south-west Baltic Sea is presenred together with a brief discussion of probable causes and consequences. The data material used is based on sea-level measuremenrs and observations made during the last 50 years by the bascule- bridge watch guard in the Falsterbo Canal, simated in the southwesimost corner of Sweden. Data are compared and treated from a number of different aspects with focus on probability estimations. It is shown, thar the mean high water level has risen by an average of over 0.9 cm per year during the last 25 years, and that the frequency of events characterized by high water levels has increased during the same period. Moreover, an extrapolauon ofrhe data series was carried out showing that the mean high water level in 2050 with a probability of 50 % can be expected ro be 185 to 190 cm above the mean sea level of today.